Due to the global economic downturn and governmental corruption, revolutions in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have occurred. It is unlikely this trend will continue, however, because of the determination of the remaining regimes to stay in power in the Arab world. Furthermore the western world, specifically the United States, will use diplomatic pressure to maintain the governments of their allies.
The unrest within North Africa is driven by the economic decline rather than a given ideology. According to the United Nations, the price of food has reached an historical high and because most Middle Eastern Nations import 50% of their food, the cost of living of the average person has dramatically increased.
For that reason, the Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt as well as the ongoing rebellion in Libya are products of the increased cost of living. Due to these increased costs the populace began confronting the corruption and the bureaucracy that constrained incomes which makes sense considering the wealth of both Mubarak’s and Ben Ali’s regimes.
As a result, the monarchies of Jordan, Bahrain, Morocco and Saudi Arabia as well as the Sultanate of Oman have already granted their people economic concessions in order to avert further protest. Furthermore, because much of the reforms currently taking place within the Middle East are purely economic it can be expected that the protest will subside when the reforms are enacted.
Another issue facing the protestors is the international backlash should their revolution prevail. Many nations have already adopted intervention as a plan of action. The Gulf countries’ cooperation council has already dispatched troops to Baharain to maintain order and pledged 20 billion dollars in relief to Baharain and Oman. The cooperation between current regimes will inevitably either satisfy or quell the protests. Moreover several regimes including the Saudi Arabian Monarchy are supported by nations outside the Middle East, such as the United States who will not let one of their primary trading partners fall.
The revolution will end in Libya because the other governments in the Middle East unlike Gaddafi are willing to satisfy their populace and maintain the balance of power whether that involves economic reform or international intervention.